Study crosses retail sales with Inmet data: water, sports drinks and beer gain in the heat; wine and spirits lose
For those who sell drinks in Brazil, the weather forecast has become planning data. A survey by Scanntech, a retail data company, calculated that each additional 1 °C in temperature increases the volume of weather-sensitive drinks by 4.1%. For beer, the effect is 5.0% per degree. The study was published by the magazine Engarrafador Moderno on September 29, in the middle of a heat wave that took Belo Horizonte to 36 °C, the highest reading of the year in the Minas Gerais capital, according to Inmet, cited by the BHAZ news site.
Scanntech, which says it captures 85% of the country's food retail, crossed sales from January 2022 to March 2026 with records from about 600 Inmet weather stations. In the group that gains from the heat, water leads (+5.7% per degree), followed by sports drinks (+5.4%), beer (+5.0%), ice (+4.9%) and energy drinks (+3.8%). Ready-to-drink tea, juice, coconut water and soft drinks also rise, between 2.9% and 3.4%. In the opposite group, wine and cognac fall 3.2% for each degree, tequila drops 2.4% and liqueur, 1.1%; cachaça, whisky and vodka also tend to lose ground on hot days.
The effect adds up: according to the study, 3 °C more corresponds to about 12.8% of extra volume for drinks that respond well to heat, and the impact of each degree is strongest around 30 °C.
With a high-intensity El Niño forecast for the coming months, the weather stops being an operational contingency and becomes a planning premise.Felipe Passarelli, of Scanntech, to Engarrafador Moderno
The Minas Gerais Beer and Beverage Industry Union (SindBebidas-MG) uses the same survey. Speaking to BHAZ, superintendent Cristiano Lamego said that during heat episodes of 3 °C to 5 °C above average, the sector in the state records or projects a 12% to 20% rise in volume sold, and that wines may fall close to 10%. The backdrop is the El Niño 2026-2027 Panel, from Inmet, Inpe and other federal agencies, which sees a high probability of the phenomenon reaching very strong intensity between spring and early summer.
The weather has also made it into the financial market's spreadsheets. In an analysis of Ambev, owner of Brahma and Skol, Citi projects a 5.5% rise in beer volume and cites more favorable weather and soccer-related consumption among the supporting factors, according to Estadão's E-Investidor. Safra, in a report described by the Suno portal, expects 3% growth in volume for the Beer Brazil division in the third quarter, over a weak base from the same period of 2025. These are estimates: the company has not yet released its results.
Sources: Engarrafador Moderno (September 29, 2026), BHAZ (September 29, 2026), Estadão E-Investidor (September 29, 2026), Suno (September 30, 2026).
