The December contract in New York dropped from 311.50 to 290.70 US cents per pound, according to Safras & Mercado
Arabica coffee ended September lower on the New York exchange. The December contract fell 6.7% over the month, from 311.50 to 290.70 US cents per pound, according to a review by Safras & Mercado published on October 2. In London, November robusta lost 2.4% over the same period.
Brazil's physical market moved the same way. Good-cup arabica from Southern Minas Gerais got 6.8% cheaper in September, and conilon 2.9%, according to the same consultancy. Safras analyst Gil Barabach attributes the decline to an improved supply flow: in his view, Brazil's crop has effectively begun reaching cooperatives and trading centers, with exports above 4 million bags in August and in September. As a result, the market swapped its worry about a coffee shortage for a perception of ample supply.
Figures from the International Coffee Organization (ICO), reported by Safras on October 1, show the same picture. In August, the world exported 12.58 million 60-kg bags, up 15% from 10.95 million in August 2025. In the twelve months through August, arabica shipments totaled 81.39 million bags, down 5%, while robusta reached 61.05 million, up 12%. In the first eleven months of the 2025/26 season, which began in October, total exports came to 130.81 million bags, versus 129.38 million in the previous cycle, a 1.1% gain.
The decline was not a straight line. On Friday, October 2, arabica rose again in New York: the December contract gained 0.87%, to 290.75 US cents per pound, and March gained 1.06%, to 282.55 cents, according to Notícias Agrícolas. The site cites as support for prices the concern over weather during Brazil's flowering and certified arabica stocks on the ICE exchange, which in September were at their lowest level in 27 years. Pulling the other way are the strong dollar and the expectation of a larger Brazilian crop.
Eduardo Carvalhaes, director of Escritório Carvalhaes, told Notícias Agrícolas that the market is in a narrow balance between supply and demand. According to him, Brazil exported about 16 million bags in the first three months of the crop year, and domestic consumption runs at around 1.7 million bags a month. The broker expects volatility to continue until March 2027, when the potential of the next crop becomes clearer. The Bebidário catalog includes coffees sold in Brazil such as 3 Corações Tradicional, Melitta Tradicional and Orfeu Clássico.
Sources: Safras & Mercado (October 2, 2026), Safras & Mercado (October 1, 2026), Notícias Agrícolas (October 2, 2026).
