The Cepea/Esalq indicator dropped 13.56% in September, pressured by Brazil's record harvest and the strong pace of exports
The price of green coffee in Brazil closed the third week of September in a firm decline. The Cepea/Esalq arabica coffee Indicator, the benchmark for Brazil's physical market, ended September 22, 2026 at R$ 1,511.31 per 60-kilo bag, down 1.49% from the previous session and 13.56% compared with the previous month. The robusta indicator, measured in Espírito Santo, stood at R$ 936.96 per bag, down 8.33% for the month.
The pressure comes from supply. In its second survey of the 2026 harvest, released on May 21, Conab projected a Brazilian crop of 66.7 million bags, 18% above the previous cycle and the largest volume in the historical series, surpassing the 2020 record of 63.08 million bags — figures published by Canal Rural and Times Brasil. The jump is driven by arabica, estimated at 45.8 million bags, up 28%, helped by the positive biennial cycle and by regular rains before flowering.
In New York the movement is the same. On September 16, the December 2026 arabica contract on ICE Futures US closed at 281.55 US cents per pound, down 2.10 cents on the day, while the March 2027 contract fell to 273.35 cents, according to SAFRAS & Mercado. The consultancy attributed the decline to the ample indications of Brazilian exports in recent months and to the expectation of greater global availability in the 2026/27 season.
The Cepea indicator measures green coffee traded between producers and buyers, not the ground coffee on the supermarket shelf, whose price includes roasting, grinding, packaging, freight and taxes. Brazilian arabica brands such as 3 Corações Tradicional, Melitta Tradicional and Orfeu Clássico buy their raw material precisely in this market, the one tracked by the indicator.
Sources: Cepea/Esalq (09/22/2026), SAFRAS & Mercado (09/16/2026), Canal Rural (05/21/2026), Times Brasil (05/21/2026).
